Model track record

Every value pick the odds board showed, graded at the first price shown, one unit each.

Since Saturday 24 October 2026

Picks 17 11 won, 6 lost
Profit +3.88 u the model expected +1.97 u
Return +22.8% the model expected +11.6%
Closing-line value −4.2% beat the close on 0% of picks

Closing-line value compares the price we flagged with where the market closed. Above zero means the market moved towards our pick, the usual sign of a lasting edge. So far it is below zero: prices on our picks have tended to drift out before faceoff, so waiting has often given a better price than the one recorded here. The return is positive, but with a few hundred picks luck still plays a large part; we show both numbers so you can judge.

0 +3.88
0 +3.88
Profit Expected profit If the model's chances are right, profit lands inside the band 19 times in 20: −5.58 to +9.52 u so far.
How picks are graded
  • A pick is a price the odds board flagged as value on a main line: at least three bookmakers quoting it (one for team and total shots, which only one bookmaker prices), odds between 1.40 and 4.00, and a model edge of 3–25%.
  • It is locked at the first price and bookmaker shown, even if the price moves before faceoff.
  • One unit per pick. Picks shown before the lineup was confirmed count the same, and nothing is removed afterwards.
  • Settled on the full game, overtime included. Exactly on the line is a push. A player who does not play is void and is not counted.
  • Results appear the morning after the game. Tonight's picks stay on the premium odds board until then.

Value prices are an estimate, not a guarantee. BetProps compares odds; it does not take bets.